Shell Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS66 KLOX 141819
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1019 AM PST Sun Dec 14 2025

CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...14/906 AM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue in most areas through
next week. The next chance of rain will be the week of Christmas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/921 AM.

***UPDATE***

Another foggy morning near the coast and into some of the coastal
valleys. Most of that will dissipate by later this morning but it
could hang on near some of the coastal areas into the afternoon
due to the low sun angle, very light onshore flow and lack of
mixing. Otherwise, away from the coastal areas it will be another
relatively warm day with highs anywhere from 5 to as much as 15
degrees above normal. The warmest areas will be where the
elevation is at or above 800 feet, and especially the western
San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley where highs will
again be in the lower 80s.

***From Previous Discussion***

As far as tonight, confidence is low in if and where low clouds
will develop. Expecting less coverage as winds will trend offshore
overnight, likely limiting development especially south of Point
Conception. Current thinking is the Central Coast will see another
round of low clouds with dense fog, and best chances down south
will be near the Long Beach area. Not expecting much in the way of
low clouds or fog Monday night into Tuesday as winds will be
solidly offshore.

The aforementioned offshore winds from the north to northeast
will become common across typically windy areas by Monday morning
and continuing into Tuesday. There is some upper level support
beginning Monday night from the north-northeast, but directionally
upper level winds will shift to the north-northwest late Tuesday.
At this point Wind Advisories are unlikely, but some localized
gusts to 45 mph are possible across portions of the western San
Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Lucia mountain ranges.

Today will feature fairly similar temps compared to yesterday,
although coastal areas will warm up a few degrees as onshore flow
is expected to be limited, if not completely muted in the
afternoon. Expecting immediate coasts to remain in the 60s today
while coastal valleys will reach the 70s to low 80s. The
increasing offshore flow combined with the strengthening upper
level ridge will lead to coasts and coastal valleys increasing up
to 5 to 10 degrees in some areas on Monday. Interior portions will
cool slightly. Coasts will top out near 70 degrees, while coastal
valleys will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with warmest areas
threatening 90 degrees. 500 mb heights will peak around 588 dam
(December normal is 571 dam) on Tuesday, leading to an overall
warming of the entire region, most noticeable across interior
portions. Coast and valley temperatures south of Point Conception
may need to be bumped up a few degrees as the NAM is showing 950
mb temps reaching 23-24 degrees C, which will likely put the
inland coasts comfortably into the 70s. Some records will be
threatened, notably Downtown Los Angeles on Monday where the
record is 85 and we are forecasting 83. Woodland Hills will also
close in on records through Tuesday. For Tuesday and Wednesday,
coasts will be 5-10 degrees above normal and inland areas 10-20
degrees above normal.

In addition to warming max temps, overnight lows will also warm
up Monday and Tuesday, but lows arent expected to be quite as
warm as last week.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/241 AM.

Wednesday will feature a flip to onshore flow to the east, and
northerly gradients will weaken some. This will bring several
degrees of cooling to coasts and valleys, especially in
conjunction with the upper level ridge beginning to weaken.

Winds will quickly turn back offshore to the east and the
northerly gradient will re-strengthen. Northwest to northeast
winds are on track to peak very late late Wednesday night into
Thursday evening, with Sundowner winds common across southern
Santa Barbara County through the remainder of the forecast period,
peaking Wednesday and Thursday night. Upper level winds will
generally be from the north-northwest, with strongest upper level
support occurring Thursday, hence the peak of the winds. Although
winds generally look sub advisory during the period, there is a
low to moderate chance for Wind Advisories on Thursday.
Temperatures will increase again Thursday as the offshore flow
strengthens, then drop a few degrees (save for the Antelope
Valley) Friday and Saturday as winds flip back to onshore the
upper level pattern flattens out and becomes more zonal. Upper
level troughing will begin Saturday, turning the upper flow
slightly southwesterly, marking the beginning of the overall
pattern change.

The pattern change may bring some light rain to northern San Luis
Obispo County as early as late Saturday, but the main focus for
any rain of significance shifts to Christmas week as an upper
level trough approaches the West Coast. Virtually every model and
AI ensemble member brings rain to the 4-county forecast area. Rain
is still favored to begin in SLO County around the 22nd, working
down south with some solutions showing rain into the weekend
following Christmas. The timing of the mean of the ensembles is in
the 23rd through Christmas Day timeframe. There is still quite a
wide range of outcomes for the Christmas week storm system, so
keep monitoring the forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1818Z.

At 1647Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1800 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs with light winds for KPMD & KWJF.

Overall, moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may off by +/- 2.5 hours with flight minimums off by
one category. V/LIFR conditions with FG potential expected at KPRB,
KSBP, & KSMX. 40% chance LIFR conditions do not develop at KOXR
or remain intermittent in nature from 06Z Monday through 15Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes tonight could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
Expected conditions: OVC005-010 with 3-6SM vsbys.
30% chc of LIFR conds: less than OVC005 and 2SM.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Generally expecting VFR conditions
but MVFR vsbys (HZ/BR) is possible at times thru fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...14/742 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through early Monday morning, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
From Monday afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-70% chance
of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds
in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday through Thursday, there is a moderate chance of SCA level
winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels
elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect much of
the coastal waters through this morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory now in effect until 11 AM PST this morning
      for zones 343-346>348-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox